Why Predicting Earthquakes Is Still Impossible

Why Predicting Earthquakes Remains an Elusive Challenge

Thousands Dead in Myanmar and Beyond as a 7.7-Magnitude Quake Strikes

A devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake has claimed thousands of lives and injured many more across Myanmar, and neighboring Thailand and China. It is the latest in a series of seismic disasters affecting millions globally each year, with more than 100,000 earthquakes detected annually worldwide.

In the wake of such tragedies, public attention often turns to figures like Brent Dmitruk, who labels himself an "earthquake predictor." In mid-October, Dmitruk warned his social media followers of an impending quake in far western California, near the coastal town of Eureka. Two months later, a powerful 7.3-magnitude quake hit the same region, triggering tsunami alerts for millions and drawing attention to Dmitruk’s forecast.

“For those who doubt me, was that just a lucky guess?” he declared during New Year’s celebrations. “It takes deep skill to anticipate these events.”

But Scientists Say Earthquake Prediction is Not Yet Possible

Despite such claims, seismologists strongly emphasize one fact: earthquakes cannot be precisely predicted. This scientific uncertainty is what makes earthquakes particularly frightening—and notoriously difficult to anticipate.

Millions living along the Pacific coast of North America remain on edge, knowing that the "Big One"—a term for a catastrophic earthquake—could strike without warning, transforming entire landscapes and lives.

Dr. Lucy Jones, a veteran seismologist with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and author of The Big Ones, has spent decades researching seismic activity and disaster preparedness. She says many people seek definitive answers about earthquakes, and some even claim to have discovered prediction methods.

“It’s a natural human response to be afraid,” Dr. Jones told the BBC. “But there’s no power on Earth that can predict exactly when an earthquake will occur.”

Seismic Hotspots and Scientific Realities

According to USGS, while over 100,000 tremors are recorded globally each year, only a few are powerful enough to cause widespread destruction. Eureka, California—a coastal town approximately 270 miles (434 km) north of San Francisco—experienced more than 700 tremors in the past year alone, including over 10 in the past week.

This region is among the most seismically active in the United States, situated at the Mendocino Triple Junction, where three tectonic plates converge. The interaction—sliding, colliding, and shifting—creates immense underground stress that, when released, triggers earthquakes.

Given this geological context, Dr. Jones considers predictions like Dmitruk’s more of a statistical coincidence than a scientific breakthrough. Though a 7.0+ magnitude earthquake is rare, USGS notes that 11 such events have occurred in the U.S. since 1900—five of them in the very region Dmitruk highlighted.

Even so, Dr. Jones maintains that predicting a precise time, location, and magnitude is beyond the reach of current science. Earthquakes result from a complex and ever-changing set of geological factors, and the sudden slip along fault lines makes them inherently unpredictable.

The Myth and Reality of Earthquake Forecasting

USGS officials confirm they can estimate the likelihood of an earthquake over long periods in specific regions—such as California’s San Andreas and Cascadia faults, which tend to generate major quakes every 200–300 years. Yet, pinpointing an exact event remains impossible.

Dr. Jones has received thousands of claims over the years from individuals insisting they’ve predicted a major quake. In the 1990s, some even faxed warnings to her office. “When you get predictions weekly, someone is bound to be right once,” she said with a laugh. “But then they go on to predict 10 more that never happen.”

Dmitruk, who lacks formal scientific training, continues to predict future seismic events in places like southwestern Alaska, Japan, and islands near New Zealand. He warns these quakes could disrupt global trade. However, he has shifted his projected timeframes multiple times—once tying it to Donald Trump's inauguration, later suggesting it would occur by 2030.

“I don’t believe it’s just luck,” Dmitruk told the BBC. “It’s not luck.”

Dr. Jones sees this as a common psychological response. “People are scared of earthquakes. Predicting them gives a false sense of control.”

Preparedness Over Prediction

Although forecasting remains elusive, experts stress the importance of preparation. Every third Thursday of October, millions of Americans participate in The Great ShakeOut, the world’s largest earthquake drill—co-created by Dr. Jones and the Southern California Earthquake Center.

The drill teaches essential survival actions: Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Participants drop to their knees, take cover under a sturdy object like a desk, and hold on for one minute. The campaign has expanded far beyond California, reaching other U.S. states and countries at risk.

Outdoors, people are urged to move away from trees, buildings, and power lines. Coastal residents are advised to head to higher ground after a quake in case of a tsunami.

“Now, when the ground is calm, is the best time to practice,” said Brian Terbush, Earthquake and Volcano Program Manager for Washington State’s Emergency Management Division.

Residents also rely on ShakeAlert, an earthquake early warning system managed by the USGS. It doesn’t predict quakes but detects initial seismic waves to issue alerts within seconds—potentially saving lives. While far from full prediction, this represents the closest science has come to real-time warnings.

For now, experts agree: while we may never predict earthquakes with pinpoint accuracy, how we prepare can make all the difference.