Raila Odinga and William Ruto: A New Political Era for Kenya

Political Alliance Between Raila and Ruto: How Will It Transform Kenyan Politics?

On Friday, March 7, 2025, in a move that sent shockwaves through Kenya’s political landscape, Raila Odinga, the veteran opposition leader and former Prime Minister, sealed a political deal with President William Ruto at a ceremony in Nairobi’s AICC Hall. This unexpected alliance has sparked a range of reactions, leaving many Kenyans and political analysts grappling to understand the implications for the country’s future.

For over four decades, Raila Odinga has been a central figure in Kenyan politics, often making decisions that have defied expectations. As the leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Odinga has orchestrated political moves that have left many speechless, with citizens and analysts alike reflecting on the significance and potential consequences of his actions.

The political marriage between Odinga and Ruto, the leader of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), has divided opinion across the nation. Kalonzo Musyoka, the leader of the Wiper Democratic Movement and Odinga’s former running mate in two presidential elections (2013 and 2017), strongly criticized the deal, labeling it a "betrayal of the Kenyan people."

Public opinion remains split. William Onyango, a Nairobi resident, expressed support, saying, “I stand with them one hundred percent. They have clearly outlined their plans for Kenya’s future.” However, Amina Mohammed from Kiamaiko, Nairobi, voiced her discontent, stating, "Even if Ruto and Raila are now allies, I see no meaningful change. We, the women and youth, continue to suffer. There is no one to help us with our struggles."

The groundwork for this alliance had been laid earlier, when ODM and UDA appeared to be aligning during discussions at the Mombasa State House, just days after Odinga’s defeat in the bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

In the new agreement with Ruto, Odinga has distanced himself from his previous Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalition, which he used in his 2022 presidential bid. Now, he has turned to Ruto, who was once part of the ODM team in 2007. After the 2013 election, Ruto broke away from Odinga to join Uhuru Kenyatta as his deputy, a partnership that ultimately brought them to power.

In 2017, allegations of election rigging led to a highly contested poll, which was annulled by the Supreme Court, triggering a fresh round of elections. Odinga boycotted this election, and his subsequent protests led to the famous 2018 “handshake” with President Kenyatta, a deal that isolated Ruto from the power structures of the time.

Two years later, in the 2022 elections, Ruto successfully ascended to the presidency, but Odinga’s political journey took yet another turn. Now, once again, Odinga finds himself back in government, marking a new phase in his complex political career.

A History of Political Alliances

Raila Odinga is no stranger to political deals of this nature. Following the post-election violence of 2008, he entered into a coalition government with President Mwai Kibaki, becoming the country’s first Prime Minister. Earlier, in 2001, Odinga had also formed a brief political alliance with President Daniel arap Moi, only to withdraw swiftly and form the NARC coalition that helped prevent Uhuru Kenyatta from succeeding Moi in the 2002 general elections.

What Does This Political Alliance Mean?

Legal expert Alutalala Mukhwana argues that for this political partnership to restore Kenyans’ trust in the government, the two leaders must prioritize the recommendations from the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO), which was established following the 2022 election protests. One key proposal in the NADCO report is the creation of the office of the Prime Minister and an official Leader of the Opposition. Mukhwana suggests that the implementation of these proposals would fundamentally alter Kenya's political structure.

Kenya’s 2010 Constitution abolished the office of Prime Minister and reduced the role of the opposition in Parliament, creating a 'winner-takes-all' scenario where the losing side is sidelined for the entirety of a presidential term.

Is the Opposition Dead in Kenya?

Some Kenyans are questioning whether the opposition is now effectively dead with Raila’s move to align with President Ruto. Many had expected Odinga to take up the mantle of ensuring government accountability, but now, with his integration into the administration, citizens are left wondering who will champion their concerns.

Political analyst Javas Bigambo, however, disagrees with this notion. He emphasizes that Kenya’s constitution still allows citizens to hold the government accountable. “There are still political leaders who can advocate on behalf of Kenyans, both within and outside Parliament,” Bigambo told BBC. He adds that the real challenge lies in seeing whether the ten key issues raised in the agreement between ODM and UDA will be addressed, including the implementation of the NADCO report.

The agreement also includes a call for a national debt audit and a joint investigation into how public funds have been used. Another key issue is the fight against corruption and the halt to financial mismanagement, which continues to plague the country.

Youth protests, particularly from Generation Z, have become a defining feature of the current political climate. On June 25, 2024, these young people stormed the National Assembly, protesting a finance bill they believed would further economically oppress them. Hanifa Adan, one of the youth protest leaders, recently took to social media to say that the youth movement would not relent, citing growing frustration with the government’s arrogance.