Trump’s Support for Putin: A Strategy to Isolate China?

Trump’s Support for Putin: A Strategic Move to Isolate China?

The evolving relationship between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is raising questions about a potential shift in America’s foreign policy, particularly in its approach to Russia and China. Trump’s overt support for Putin, alongside his stance on the Ukraine conflict, is reshaping diplomatic dynamics and leaving analysts speculating about a broader geopolitical strategy.

Trump’s Close Ties with Putin Signal Policy Shift

In a move that has stirred debate, Trump has actively engaged with Putin on negotiations to end the Ukraine war. Reports indicate that he pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept tough Russian terms, even as Ukraine continues to resist Moscow’s aggression. Additionally, Trump has warned European allies against relying on continued U.S. support, further aligning himself with Russia’s strategic interests.

These actions have sparked speculation: Is Trump crafting a new diplomatic strategy aimed at distancing Russia from China? Or are his interactions with Putin driven by personal affinity rather than geopolitical foresight?

Signs of a U.S. Realignment Toward Russia

The first notable indication of a U.S. policy shift appeared on February 12, when Trump and Putin held a 90-minute phone call. Following this conversation, Trump reportedly urged Zelensky to cede territory to Russia without securing concrete security guarantees from the U.S.

"We have agreed on closer cooperation, including reciprocal visits between our nations," Trump stated after the call with Putin.

Further deepening the shift, Trump announced that Ukraine would not be granted NATO membership post-war, contradicting the commitments made by his predecessor, Joe Biden—an assurance that Russia has vehemently opposed.

During their White House meeting, Trump allegedly criticized Zelensky, calling him “unfit” and a “dictator,” echoing rhetoric previously used by Putin. Trump also suggested that Ukraine should not have engaged in war, despite Russia's 2022 invasion.

Moreover, the U.S. abstained from condemning Russia at the United Nations during a vote marking the third anniversary of the Ukraine war. This absence of reproach fueled further concerns about a growing pro-Russia shift in Washington.

Is the U.S. Trying to Lure Russia Away from China?

Trump’s alignment with Putin and distancing from European allies suggest a significant departure from the U.S.'s longstanding foreign policy approach. However, it remains uncertain whether this shift is part of a broader strategic effort to drive a wedge between Russia and China.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed this notion in a February 25 interview, stating that Trump’s administration aims to weaken the Russia-China alliance.

"I believe Russia will remain China’s junior partner, forced into compliance due to its dependency. That’s bad for Russia, bad for the U.S., bad for Europe, and bad for the world," Rubio explained.

He also emphasized Washington’s plan to counter China’s expanding global trade network, known as the Belt and Road Initiative.

China, however, swiftly dismissed these claims. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian asserted, “The U.S.’s attempt to sow discord between China and Russia is bound to fail. Our strategic partnership is built on long-term stability and mutual interests.”

A Reverse Nixon Doctrine?

Some analysts see Rubio’s strategy as reminiscent of President Richard Nixon’s 1972 diplomatic breakthrough, which successfully split China from the Soviet Union, reducing Cold War tensions.

During Nixon’s presidency, guided by National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger, the U.S. opened ties with China, isolating the Soviet Union. Now, some believe Trump’s push to align with Russia could be an attempt to isolate China—a reversal of Nixon’s approach, dubbed the “Reverse Kissinger Plan.”

A report by the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations notes, "Senior U.S. policymakers believe they can engage Russia to counterbalance China’s growing global influence."

Klaus Weil, a professor at the London School of Economics, elaborated: “The U.S. doesn’t want Russia to become China’s resource colony. If Russia supplies China with cheap raw materials, it strengthens Beijing at America’s expense.”

Can the U.S. Break the Russia-China Alliance?

Despite Washington’s ambitions, separating Russia from China remains a formidable challenge. The two nations declared a "no-limits" partnership just before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and their economic ties have deepened since.

China is now the largest importer of Russian crude oil, with purchases surging to $62 billion in 2024—nearly double the pre-war volume. Western sanctions on Russian energy have only strengthened this economic dependency.

Additionally, China is a crucial supplier of advanced technology to Russia, including semiconductors critical for military applications. Studies from U.S. think tanks, including the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, reveal that a significant share of Russia’s imported computer chips originates from China.

Professor Yang Zheng of the Shanghai Academy of Global Governance and Area Studies argued that a complete reconciliation between the U.S. and Russia is unlikely.

"There remains deep-rooted distrust and ideological differences," Zheng noted. “Putin may entertain the idea of improved relations with the U.S., but he won’t sever ties with China for uncertain American incentives.”

Similarly, Henrik Wachtmeister of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs warned, "Russia and China are natural partners due to their resource-driven economies, while Russia and the U.S. remain competitors, particularly in the energy sector."

Is Trump’s Support for Putin Personal Rather Than Strategic?

Some experts suggest that Trump’s pro-Russia stance is less about diplomatic strategy and more about personal motivations. His affinity for Putin dates back to his first presidency, when allegations emerged about Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election.

During his last meeting with Zelensky, Trump reportedly remarked, "I’ve known Putin for a long time, and we had to go through this so-called 'Russia hoax' together."

Analyst David Allen observed, "Trump sees himself and Putin as victims of political persecution."

Weil further added, “Trump has longstanding financial and business connections in Russia, from the Miss Universe pageant to real estate investments supported by Russian capital.”

While Trump's stance on Russia continues to draw scrutiny, the implications of his potential second term on global diplomacy remain uncertain.