Three Years of War: Ukraine’s Struggle and International Dynamics

Ukraine's Struggles Over Three Years of Conflict: A Nation in Crisis

The war in Ukraine has now stretched into its third year, with every available resource being mobilized in the fight. While Ukraine's access to weapons and funding from international allies has been more consistent, the nation is facing an increasingly dire situation as it moves into its fourth year of conflict. Ukrainian forces are now focused less on offensive operations and more on negotiating for peace, with victory no longer seen as a likely outcome.

Decline in Population Numbers

Ukraine's last population census was conducted in 2001. Prior to the Russian invasion, the population was estimated at between 41-42 million people (excluding Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk). However, according to UN estimates, Ukraine's population has dropped by over 10 million people since February 2022, a reduction of around a quarter of its pre-war population.

Experts agree that this decline is inevitable, and it is already unfolding. By July 2024, the population in territories controlled by Ukraine had shrunk to around 30 million, according to data from three Ukrainian mobile network providers.

In a report released by the CIA in late 2024, Ukraine’s mortality rate was reported to be among the highest in the world, standing at approximately 18.6 deaths per 1,000 people. In comparison, Russia ranked ninth, with a death rate of 14 per 1,000.

Additionally, Ukraine has the lowest birth rate globally, with only six births per 1,000 people, positioning it at 228th place in this ranking.

Civilian and Military Casualties

The United Nations has reported a significant increase in civilian casualties throughout 2024. Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN Deputy Secretary-General for Political Affairs, highlighted a 30% rise in deaths and injuries due to Russian military actions compared to the previous year. This was noted during a UN Security Council meeting in January 2025.

A particular focus was given to the rise in child casualties, with data showing a sharp increase in child deaths and injuries in the first three quarters of 2024.

According to the UN Office for the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), approximately 12,456 civilians have been killed since the invasion began, including 669 children. The UN emphasizes that these figures reflect confirmed deaths, with the actual toll likely higher.

Military Casualties

Throughout the war, Ukrainian authorities have provided limited data on military casualties. However, in early February 2025, President Zelensky shared figures in an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan. When asked about the claims made by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who stated that Ukraine had lost 400,000 soldiers, Zelensky clarified that the actual number of Ukrainian military fatalities stood at 45,100. This was a notable increase from the 31,000 deaths reported the previous year, with 390,000 more injured.

Internally Displaced Persons

As of December 2024, the Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy reported that 4.9 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) had been registered in Ukraine. Of these, 3.6 million had fled their homes following the onset of the invasion. Among these, 2.5 million are unable to return home due to the destruction of their properties, ongoing fighting, or occupation of their areas.

Refugees Abroad

By mid-January 2025, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that nearly 6.9 million Ukrainians had sought refuge abroad, with 6.3 million of them in Europe. Initially, the majority of refugees went to Poland, but Germany has since become the leading host country.

The UN reports that more than 993,000 Ukrainians are currently under temporary protection in Poland, although only 1.9 million have received this status since the conflict began. Additionally, around 1.269 million Ukrainians sought refuge in Russia and Belarus.

Military Spending and the Cost of War

According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance, security and defense expenditures for 2024 amounted to approximately $51.9 billion, averaging nearly $142 million per day of the ongoing conflict. In 2025, over 2.2 trillion Ukrainian hryvnias ($49 billion) have been allocated to the Armed Forces, representing 26.3% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

A Changing Global Diplomatic Landscape

As the war continues, the shifting diplomatic landscape and the potential for peace negotiations have sparked concerns. Maxsym, a Ukrainian national, compared the current diplomatic discussions to the failed Munich Agreement of 1938, in which Western powers capitulated to Nazi Germany. He warned that the West is giving the aggressor an opportunity to hold onto some of the occupied territories, drawing parallels between the present and past geopolitical missteps.

Dmytro, another Ukrainian, expressed similar concerns, suggesting that former U.S. President Donald Trump, like British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, might be inclined to appease the aggressor, Vladimir Putin, rather than confront him with the resolve of Winston Churchill.

The Trump Factor

While Trump has called for negotiations with Russia, his stance has been controversial. He has demanded $500 billion in exchange for Ukraine's mineral rights, which President Zelensky rejected, citing that he could not sell his country's sovereignty. Trump’s overtures to Russia and his favorable view of Putin have raised alarm among European diplomats and politicians. Some argue that the military and financial support provided to Ukraine by the U.S. and its allies has been sufficient to prevent a Russian victory, but not enough to secure a Ukrainian win.

Critics claim that Trump’s position lacks a realistic strategy, leaning instead on sentiment and a desire to rebuild ties with Russia, potentially at Ukraine's expense.

Confronting Putin

To confront Putin's ambitions, experts argue that Ukraine’s sovereignty cannot be sacrificed. The idea of returning Ukraine under Russia’s control, whether through territorial concessions or direct control, is viewed as unfeasible and unacceptable to most Ukrainians. The European security framework is being fundamentally reshaped by the ongoing war, and the stakes for global stability are higher than ever.