Israel Resumes Gaza Airstrikes: What Comes Next?

Why Did Israel Resume Strikes on Gaza, and What Happens Next?

Escalation in Gaza as Israeli Airstrikes Resume

Israeli warplanes launched a fresh wave of airstrikes on Gaza overnight, resulting in the deaths of more than 400 people, marking the collapse of a fragile ceasefire that had been in place since January.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attributed the renewed attacks to Hamas, accusing the group of refusing to release Israeli hostages and rejecting U.S.-brokered proposals. In a statement, Netanyahu asserted that Israeli forces had been instructed to take “decisive action” in response.

Reports from Israeli media indicate that the military has observed Hamas actively regrouping in recent days, reinforcing concerns over renewed militant activity. Meanwhile, Gaza's health ministry, which is managed by Hamas, reported that more than 140 people had been killed in the weeks leading up to this latest offensive, even before the major strikes of the past 24 hours.

The Breakdown of Ceasefire Negotiations

The ceasefire agreement, brokered by the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt, was structured in three phases:

1. Initial Phase: Hamas would release 33 hostages, while Israel would free approximately 1,900 Palestinian prisoners and facilitate humanitarian aid deliveries into Gaza.
2. Second Phase: Both sides would initiate negotiations to secure the release of all remaining hostages in exchange for a full Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza.
3. Final Phase: A permanent cessation of hostilities would be established.

The first phase was completed on March 1. However, discussions regarding the second phase stalled, prompting Israel to block all humanitarian aid from entering Gaza. This move triggered international alarm, with Israel instead supporting a revised U.S. proposal that sought to extend phase one while postponing discussions on a permanent ceasefire.

Hamas and Israeli representatives met in Qatar last week to discuss a way forward, with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff presenting a modified proposal. This plan aimed to ensure the release of more hostages in exchange for additional Palestinian prisoner releases, while leaving final ceasefire discussions for a later stage.

However, Hamas rejected the plan, insisting that any deal must include a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. In response, Israel hardened its stance, cutting off aid supplies and increasing military pressure.

Israel’s Strategic Dilemma: Hostage Recovery vs. Defeating Hamas

Israel faces two competing objectives—securing the return of hostages and dismantling Hamas. The challenge lies in the fact that Hamas retains leverage through its remaining hostages, using them as bargaining chips in ceasefire talks.

Hamas has demanded an Israeli military withdrawal in exchange for releasing all captives, a condition Israel firmly opposes. The U.S. and Israel have rejected Hamas’s demands, instead advocating for a phased ceasefire that keeps military operations ongoing. U.S. envoy Witkoff criticized Hamas for making "unrealistic demands behind closed doors while publicly appearing open to negotiations."

At the end of February, Israeli officials publicly confirmed that their military would maintain a presence in strategic locations within Gaza, violating initial ceasefire commitments.

The impasse has left Israel with limited options, leading to the recent decision to resume airstrikes in an effort to force Hamas into accepting new terms. However, the strategy has yet to yield results, and instead, it appears to have set the stage for further escalation.

What Comes Next?

The renewed conflict suggests that Gaza may soon witness an even greater military offensive than what has been seen in the past two months of relative calm.

On Monday morning, Israel's military published evacuation maps, instructing Palestinian civilians to leave certain districts within Gaza. This suggests that fresh ground operations may be imminent.

Hamas, in response, has called for an immediate cessation of Israeli military actions but has not yet declared whether it will resume active combat.

Israeli military sources have confirmed that 40,000 reserve troops have been recalled, further fueling speculation of an impending ground invasion.

The political landscape in Israel has also shifted. The far-right Jewish Power party announced its return to Netanyahu’s governing coalition, having previously withdrawn in protest over the ceasefire. This move strengthens Netanyahu’s grip on power at a crucial moment, as his government prepares to pass a key budget.

Ultimately, Israel's latest strikes may serve as a pressure tactic to force Hamas into negotiations. However, they could also mark the beginning of a prolonged military campaign—one that will have devastating consequences for both Palestinians in Gaza and Israeli families still waiting for the safe return of their loved ones.