PGA Championship Picks 2026: Experts Split Between Scheffler, McIlroy and Cameron Young

The 2026 PGA Championship has arrived at historic Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, bringing together one of the deepest major championship fields in recent memory. With 156 players competing for the Wanamaker Trophy, the conversation surrounding PGA Championship picks has become increasingly focused on a handful of elite contenders — Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Jon Rahm, and Xander Schauffele.

Analysts, betting experts, and former professionals are divided over who has the strongest edge this week, but one theme is consistent throughout nearly every prediction: Aronimink is expected to reward elite ball-striking, power off the tee, and precise approach play.

CBS Sports analysts Sia Nejad and Mike McClure joined host Katie Mox to break down their PGA Championship picks ahead of Thursday’s opening round, while experts across ESPN, betting platforms, and golf media outlets have released their own projections for the season’s second major.

Why Aronimink Is Creating So Much Attention

Aronimink Golf Club is hosting only its second major championship, and many experts believe the course setup could shape the entire tournament narrative.

The course previously hosted the 2018 BMW Championship, won by Keegan Bradley in a playoff over Justin Rose, with Rory McIlroy finishing fifth. This year’s PGA Championship setup measures approximately 7,394 yards as a par 70, and recent restoration work by architect Gil Hanse has made the layout considerably more demanding.

Analysts expect:

• Thick rough to punish missed fairways
• Fast bentgrass greens to test putting under pressure
• Wind gusts near 20 mph during portions of the week
• A premium on approach shots and controlled iron play

Still, several players believe modern power hitters may overpower parts of the course.

John Middlekauff described the modern PGA Tour landscape bluntly while previewing the championship:

“The power these guys possess now is pretty incredible, and by all accounts, they are going to destroy this course.”

Middlekauff also noted that players such as Cameron Young routinely hit drives exceeding 340 yards, leaving short irons into holes that once demanded long approaches.

Scottie Scheffler Remains the Favorite

Virtually every sportsbook and expert model has Scottie Scheffler as the clear favorite entering the tournament.

The world No. 1 arrives as the defending PGA champion after dominating at Quail Hollow in 2025 by five shots — the largest PGA Championship victory margin since Rory McIlroy’s eight-shot triumph in 2012.

Scheffler’s profile entering the week is remarkable:

• World ranking: No. 1
• Four major championships
• 20 PGA Tour victories
• Three consecutive runner-up finishes entering the event
• Nine top-25 finishes in 2026

Betting markets have listed Scheffler anywhere between +385 and +480 depending on sportsbook pricing.

ESPN analyst Mark Schlabach summarized the consensus view:

“World No. 1 golfer Scottie Scheffler hasn’t won since his first start of the season in the American Express… He puts it together this week and captures his fifth major.”

Dimers simulations also projected Scheffler as the strongest statistical favorite, assigning him a 17.7% win probability — far ahead of the rest of the field.

Rory McIlroy Chasing More Major History

Rory McIlroy enters the PGA Championship carrying enormous momentum after winning the Masters earlier this season.

The two-time PGA Championship winner is attempting to continue a major championship run that many believe could eventually push him into double-digit major titles.

McIlroy’s strengths remain obvious:

• First in strokes gained off the tee
• Elite driving distance
• Proven major championship pedigree
• Strong prior results at Aronimink

However, analysts continue to express concern about his putting consistency. According to tournament previews, McIlroy ranks:

• 105th in strokes gained putting
• 114th in putts per round
• 129th in one-putt percentage

There are also lingering concerns about a blister issue on McIlroy’s foot after he reportedly cut a practice round short earlier in the week.

Still, many experts believe McIlroy’s power game fits Aronimink perfectly.

Peter Lawrence-Riddell noted:

“Aronimink is going to favor guys that can bomb it off the tee — and nobody in the game can do that better than the reigning Masters champion.”

Cameron Young Emerging as the Breakout Pick

While Scheffler and McIlroy dominate headlines, Cameron Young has rapidly become one of the most popular PGA Championship picks among analysts.

The 28-year-old world No. 3 has enjoyed a breakout 2026 season featuring victories at:

• THE PLAYERS Championship
• The Cadillac Championship

He has also posted top-10 finishes in six of his last seven starts.

Young’s statistical profile is elite:

• Second in strokes gained total
• Sixth in strokes gained off the tee
• 21st in strokes gained approach

Multiple ESPN experts selected Young as their outright winner pick.

John Middlekauff went even further:

“I think Cam Young is winning a major this year.”

Middlekauff’s betting card included:

• Cameron Young outright winner (+1200)
• Cameron Young Top 5 (+250)
• Cameron Young Top 10 (+140)

Young’s combination of distance, current form, and aggressive iron play has made him one of the trendiest selections entering the tournament.

Other Players Drawing Strong Support

Xander Schauffele

The 2024 PGA Championship winner continues to build a reputation as one of golf’s most consistent major performers.

Schauffele has recorded:

• 16 consecutive top-30 finishes in majors
• Four top-12 finishes in his last five starts
• Strong first-round leader betting support

Bryson DeChambeau

DeChambeau’s recent PGA Championship form has been outstanding:

• Runner-up in 2024
• Runner-up in 2025
• Four top-five finishes in his last five PGA appearances

His extreme power could turn several Aronimink holes into scoring opportunities.

Jon Rahm

Rahm remains one of the sport’s biggest names, though analysts note the PGA Championship has historically been his least successful major.

Even so, sportsbooks still list him among the leading contenders at roughly +1300 to +1400.

Justin Rose

Several analysts identified Justin Rose as a sleeper contender due to his strong history at Aronimink.

Rose previously:

• Won at Aronimink
• Lost in a playoff there
• Continues to rank among the world’s best iron players

Pamela Maldonado labeled Rose her favorite long-shot outright pick at +4700.

Jordan Spieth and the Career Grand Slam Storyline

Jordan Spieth enters his tenth attempt to complete the career Grand Slam.

The PGA Championship remains the only major missing from Spieth’s résumé, but recent form creates uncertainty:

• No PGA Tour win since 2022
• Six consecutive PGA Championships outside the top 25
• Ongoing putting inconsistency

Still, some analysts believe improved driving accuracy could make him a surprise contender this week.

Tee Times and Featured Groups Generating Buzz

One of the most anticipated groupings of the opening rounds features:

• Rory McIlroy
• Jordan Spieth
• Jon Rahm

Another marquee group pairs:

• Scottie Scheffler
• Matt Fitzpatrick
• Justin Rose

Meanwhile, Bryson DeChambeau, Ludvig Åberg, and Rickie Fowler are grouped together in another featured draw.

Betting Markets Continue Expanding

Sportsbooks and prediction market apps have aggressively promoted PGA Championship betting throughout tournament week.

Operators including:

• DraftKings
• FanDuel
• BetMGM
• Caesars
• Fanatics
• Novig

have launched extensive promotions tied to the event.

Popular betting options include:

• Tournament winner
• Top 5 finishes
• Top 10 finishes
• First-round leader
• Head-to-head matchups

Experts continue emphasizing that elite ball-strikers may offer the strongest value on this specific course setup.

What to Expect This Weekend

The 2026 PGA Championship appears positioned for a fascinating collision between golf’s established superstars and its emerging generation.

Scheffler enters as the safest pick statistically. McIlroy brings major momentum and star power. Cameron Young arrives with perhaps the hottest current form outside the world No. 1.

At the same time, experienced names like Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, and Bryson DeChambeau remain dangerous in major championship environments.

With Aronimink expected to reward aggressive yet precise golf, analysts believe this year’s PGA Championship could produce one of the strongest leaderboards of the season.

And if the predictions from experts across golf media prove correct, fans may finally get the major showdown many have wanted for years: Scottie Scheffler versus Rory McIlroy on Sunday afternoon with the Wanamaker Trophy on the line.