One Nation’s Polling Surge Shakes Australian Politics as Pauline Hanson Eyes a Bigger Role

Australia’s political landscape is facing one of its most significant shifts in years, with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation recording a dramatic rise in support that has placed the party ahead of Labor in several recent polls. The surge has intensified debate about voter frustration, economic anxiety, housing affordability, and growing distrust of traditional political institutions.

A combination of new polling data, budget backlash, cost-of-living pressures, and dissatisfaction with the major parties has created an environment in which One Nation is attracting support far beyond its traditional voter base. The developments have sparked renewed scrutiny of Pauline Hanson’s leadership ambitions, the party’s policy platform, and what the changing numbers could mean for the next federal election.

The Poll That Changed the Conversation

The most striking development came from the latest RedBridge Group and Accent Research survey, which showed One Nation securing 31 per cent of the primary vote, placing it ahead of Labor on 28 per cent and well ahead of the Coalition on 20 per cent. The survey sampled 1,005 voters between May 25 and May 28 and carried a margin of error of 3.4 per cent.

The poll represented a major shift in Australian politics because it suggested that voter dissatisfaction was no longer automatically benefiting the traditional opposition. Instead, support appeared to be flowing toward a party that has positioned itself as an anti-establishment alternative.

Redbridge director Tony Barry said the findings reflected a broader sense of national dissatisfaction.

“With almost two-thirds of the electorate now saying Australia is heading in the wrong direction, that pervasive negative mood sentiment is fuelling more anti-establishment support.”

According to the survey, 63 per cent of respondents believed Australia was heading in the wrong direction, highlighting the depth of public frustration.

Why Voters Are Turning Toward One Nation

Political analysts say the surge is not simply about ideology.

Research discussed by political scientists and polling experts suggests many voters are responding to economic pressures and a perceived decline in living standards rather than making a straightforward shift to the political right.

Simon Welsh, research director at RedBridge Group, described growing support for One Nation as:

“an expression of the frustration and the anger that these voters are experiencing because of a material decline over a number of years in living standards.”

He argued that many voters are searching for what they view as an authentic outlet for their dissatisfaction rather than embracing a purely ideological movement.

Cost-of-living concerns remain at the centre of this frustration. Rising interest rates, housing affordability problems, and uncertainty surrounding economic reforms have contributed to growing voter discontent across several demographic groups.

The Budget Backlash

The Albanese government’s 2026 federal budget has become a major factor in the political debate.

The budget introduced significant changes to capital gains tax concessions and negative gearing rules, policies designed to address housing affordability and intergenerational inequality. Under the reforms, the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount would be replaced by a less generous model, while negative gearing would be limited to newly built properties.

However, polling suggests the reforms have struggled to win public support.

Only 23 per cent of voters surveyed believed the budget would be good for the nation, while 55 per cent thought it would be bad. Just 11 per cent believed it would benefit them personally, compared with 48 per cent who expected negative impacts.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers acknowledged public concerns while defending the reforms.

“The difference between us and the three-ring circus on the right of politics is that we are doing something about those legitimate concerns that people have,” Chalmers said.

He argued that the government was pursuing long-term housing reforms even if the policies created short-term political difficulties.

Millennials Deliver a Political Shock

One of the most surprising findings from the RedBridge survey involved younger Australians.

For years, political observers have noted that Millennials have tended to remain more progressive than previous generations at similar ages. Yet the latest polling suggests One Nation is now attracting substantial support among voters aged roughly 30 to 45.

Among Millennials, One Nation recorded 30 per cent support compared with Labor’s 28 per cent. The Greens attracted 18 per cent while the Coalition sat at 16 per cent.

The picture was very different among Generation Z voters aged 18 to 29, where Labor remained dominant on 35 per cent and the Greens secured 27 per cent, while One Nation attracted only 10 per cent.

Australian National University political scientist Ian McAllister suggested the divide may be linked to educational attainment.

“The younger people who are going to One Nation tend not to have educational qualifications, and the younger people going to the Greens, and also to a lesser extent, the major parties, do tend to have educational qualifications,” he said.

Trust in Politics Is Becoming a Defining Issue

Another major factor behind One Nation’s rise appears to be declining trust in political institutions.

Research cited in the Australian Election Study found that One Nation supporters are among the most distrustful voters in the country. Seventy-four per cent of One Nation voters reportedly believe politicians “usually look after themselves.”

Housing affordability has emerged as a particularly important source of frustration.

Many Millennials have struggled to enter the property market despite years of political promises. Analysts argue that this has contributed to growing scepticism toward traditional parties and helped fuel support for alternatives promising significant change.

Pauline Hanson’s Prime Ministerial Ambitions

The polling surge has also placed Pauline Hanson herself under an intense spotlight.

Following the release of the polling results, Hanson openly discussed the possibility of becoming prime minister.

“Do I want to be prime minister? Well, I tell you what, I won’t knock the job … because I believe that I have the ability to do it,” she said.

She has also confirmed that moving from the Senate to the House of Representatives is under consideration.

“It is in consideration, by all means,” Hanson said.

In separate interviews, Hanson pointed out that the Australian Constitution does not explicitly require the prime minister to sit in the lower house.

“You can be prime minister from the Senate,” she noted, citing former prime minister John Gorton as an example.

The comments generated significant political discussion and criticism from opponents who questioned both her attendance record in Senate estimates hearings and her readiness to govern.

What Does One Nation Stand For?

One Nation has built its political identity around several long-standing themes.

The party has consistently advocated stricter immigration controls, stronger national sovereignty measures, opposition to aspects of multiculturalism, and a focus on regional Australia. Immigration has remained one of the central pillars of Pauline Hanson’s political messaging since the party’s formation in 1997.

More recently, the party has expanded its focus to include cost-of-living pressures, housing affordability, energy policy, opposition to net-zero emissions targets, and criticism of what it describes as establishment politics.

Supporters view these positions as addressing concerns that major parties have ignored. Critics argue that many of the party’s proposals remain controversial and divisive, particularly on immigration and social issues.

The Coalition’s Growing Dilemma

One Nation’s rise presents a serious challenge not only for Labor but also for the Coalition.

While opposition figures have attempted to capitalize on dissatisfaction with Labor’s budget, polling indicates that much of the anti-government sentiment is flowing toward One Nation instead of the Liberal-National coalition.

Nationals frontbencher David Littleproud acknowledged the challenge and argued the Coalition must respond with stronger policy offerings on energy, taxation, and immigration.

Former prime minister Tony Abbott has also emphasized the need to rebuild conservative support and restore confidence among voters who have drifted toward alternatives such as One Nation.

A Political System Under Pressure

Whether One Nation can maintain its current momentum remains uncertain.

Australian politics has seen outsider parties rise rapidly before facing difficulties translating polling support into parliamentary power. Yet the current environment appears different because voter dissatisfaction is being driven by structural issues that many Australians encounter daily, including housing affordability, wage pressures, taxation concerns, and rising living costs.

The narrowing gap between Labor and One Nation in two-party preferred calculations also suggests the party is no longer viewed by many voters as merely a protest option. Instead, growing numbers appear willing to consider it as a serious political force.

Conclusion

The latest RedBridge polling has triggered one of the most significant conversations in Australian politics this year. One Nation’s rise to 31 per cent support, Pauline Hanson’s increasingly ambitious rhetoric, and widespread dissatisfaction with economic conditions have combined to challenge long-standing assumptions about voter behaviour.

For Labor, the results raise difficult questions about whether major economic reforms can be effectively communicated to voters. For the Coalition, they highlight the risk of losing conservative and regional support to a competitor occupying similar political territory.

Most importantly, the polling reflects a broader message from voters who feel disconnected from traditional political institutions and are searching for alternatives. Whether that frustration ultimately translates into electoral success for One Nation remains to be seen, but the party’s surge has already reshaped the national political debate.