Pauline Hanson’s Political Surge: Why One Nation’s Rise Is Shaking Australian Politics

Pauline Hanson has spent decades as one of Australia’s most polarising political figures, but the latest wave of polling has pushed her and One Nation into a new and far more consequential phase of national politics.

A shock Redbridge Group and Accent Research poll has placed One Nation’s primary support at 31 per cent, ahead of Labor on 28 per cent and the Coalition on 20 per cent. For a party long treated as a protest force outside the traditional centre of power, the result has triggered a sharp reassessment of Hanson’s position, her political durability and the changing shape of Australia’s electorate.

Hanson, who recently turned 72, has responded with characteristic defiance. She says she has the ability to lead Australia as prime minister, insists she is not too old for parliament, and argues that her party’s rise reflects a deeper dissatisfaction with the major parties.

The result is more than a strong poll for a minor party. It is a signal that Australian politics may be entering a volatile new period, where cost-of-living pressure, distrust of traditional parties and populist messaging are reshaping voter loyalties.

A Shock Poll Changes the Conversation

The poll placing One Nation on 31 per cent has become the centre of political debate because it suggests a dramatic shift in the primary-vote contest.

According to the polling, One Nation rose four percentage points over the past month, while Labor fell three points to 28 per cent. The Coalition dropped from 22 per cent to 20 per cent. The survey questioned just over 1000 people and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

For Hanson, the result is not being treated as a passing curiosity. Speaking after the numbers emerged, she said the outcome was something she had been “working towards” throughout her political career.

“But it’s not for me personally, I want to change for the country. I want people to feel that they’ve, you know, got some hope for the future,” she told ABC Radio Brisbane.

The language matters. Hanson is framing One Nation’s rise not as a personal triumph but as evidence of a national mood. That framing is central to her appeal: she presents herself as a long-standing outsider who now claims to represent voters who feel ignored by the political establishment.

Could Pauline Hanson Become Prime Minister?

The question of whether Hanson could realistically become prime minister has moved from political speculation into mainstream discussion because of the poll.

Hanson currently sits in the Senate, but she has not ruled out moving to the House of Representatives before the next election. Convention holds that the prime minister sits in the lower house, although Hanson has argued there is no constitutional requirement for that to be the case.

Asked whether she could do the job, Hanson replied directly.

“At the moment, I’m head of the party. I’m leader of the party. Would I be able to do the job? I believe that I could. I do believe I have the ability, but it’s another year and a half outside of an election.”

She also said she could not encourage Australians to vote for One Nation while denying any ambition to lead.

“Because why then would I encourage people to vote for One Nation?” she said.

“If that’s what the people want because they’ll be knowing if they vote for the nation, I’m the leader of the party. I will be automatically be in that position. But it’s a long way outside the election.”

That final sentence is important. Hanson is acknowledging the uncertainty of politics while keeping the possibility open. In practical terms, One Nation would need a far broader and more disciplined electoral machine to convert polling strength into government. But symbolically, the fact that Hanson is being asked about the prime ministership shows how far the conversation has moved.

“Don’t Underestimate Me”: Hanson Pushes Back on Age Questions

Hanson’s age has also become part of the political discussion. After turning 72, she rejected claims that she is too old to continue in parliament or potentially contest the next election.

“I’ll let the people know this. I’ve already told my staff, if I become like a (former US president) Joe Biden, just tap me on the shoulder and give me the heel to move on,” Senator Hanson told 2GB radio.

“It will come down to my health. I’ve got nothing wrong with me. I take no medication, nothing. I’ve got more energy in me than a lot of these other people.”

She went further, presenting her work ethic as evidence that she remains politically fit.

“My staff are flat out keeping up with me from eight o’clock in the morning till 10, 11 o’clock at night. I can still run down the halls of parliament in my heels when I have to get to the chamber, so don’t underestimate me,” she said.

The remarks fit Hanson’s long-established political style: combative, personal and dismissive of elite criticism. Rather than avoiding the age question, she has turned it into an argument about stamina, authenticity and resilience.

One Nation’s Rise and the Cost-of-Living Backlash

The surge in support for One Nation is being linked to broader voter frustration, especially around the cost of living and disillusionment with the major parties.

Kos Samaras, director at RedBridge Group and a former Labor strategist, said the public reaction to the federal budget was less about the technical details of policy and more about a sense that the major parties were failing to address everyday pressure.

“Australia’s net response to the budget was not necessarily whether the government’s doing a good job or the opposition’s response is great,” he told ABC’s AM.

“It’s more, well, all I’ve heard post-budget is these two major parties or traditional major parties bickering amongst each other whilst I’m struggling to pay the bills.”

That analysis helps explain why One Nation’s support is not simply ideological. Voters who feel economically squeezed may be using Hanson’s party as a vehicle for dissatisfaction. In that sense, One Nation’s rise reflects both a protest vote and a broader restructuring of political identity.

Samaras has described the two-party system most Australians grew up with as “gone”.

“The real contest, unless something changes by 2028, now runs between Labor and One Nation, and the Coalition is a spectator in the stands … eating doughnuts,” he said.

That is a provocative assessment, but it captures the seriousness of the moment for the Coalition. If the Coalition’s vote remains third behind Labor and One Nation, the centre-right of Australian politics faces a major strategic crisis.

Why Women Voters Matter in Hanson’s New Momentum

One of the most striking elements of One Nation’s surge is its performance among women voters.

An April study by RedBridge and Accent Research found Hanson had become the most popular party leader among women voters, ahead of the prime minister. It also found One Nation was the leading first-preference party among women.

According to the same polling trend, 28 per cent of women voters had One Nation as their first choice for the House of Representatives, up from 9 per cent in June 2025. Over the same period, the proportion of women choosing Coalition parties fell from 30 per cent to 22 per cent.

This challenges a long-standing assumption about far-right and populist parties. Such parties have often been seen as male-dominated in their voter base, membership and political image. Hanson complicates that picture. She has led One Nation for decades in a political environment where women rarely lead parties of any kind, and she is now attracting significant support from women voters.

The trend is not unique to Australia. Hanson sits within a wider international pattern that includes women leading or shaping right-wing populist and far-right parties, such as Marine Le Pen in France, Giorgia Meloni in Italy, and Alice Weidel in Germany.

The significance is not only that women can lead these movements. It is that women voters and grassroots supporters are increasingly central to their electoral credibility.

A Party Moving From Protest to Power?

One Nation’s current polling suggests the party is no longer merely a protest vehicle on the margins. Its recent electoral successes in South Australia and Farrer have helped build the perception that Hanson’s party can convert discontent into seats.

That matters because Australian politics is built on momentum as much as numbers. A party that voters believe can win becomes more attractive to supporters who may previously have treated it as a symbolic choice.

Hanson’s own language reflects that shift. She is no longer only attacking the system from outside; she is presenting One Nation as a possible governing alternative.

But the path from polling strength to political power remains difficult. One Nation would need candidate depth, organisational capacity, disciplined messaging and sustained voter support through a full campaign. A single poll does not guarantee election success, especially so far from polling day.

Even so, the shock of the latest numbers lies in what they reveal about voter volatility. Labor faces pressure over cost-of-living concerns, the Coalition is struggling to reassert itself, and One Nation is benefiting from a moment when many Australians appear open to alternatives.

Major Parties Search for a Response

The reaction from established parties has been mixed.

Health Minister Mark Butler urged caution, saying the numbers should not be overinterpreted.

“I wouldn’t read too much into the numbers. We’re two years out from an election. There’ll be a million polls between now and election day, which will determine future government,” Butler told ABC radio.

That is a familiar government response to unfavourable polling: emphasise distance from the election, uncertainty and the likelihood of future movement.

The Coalition, however, faces a more complex problem. Some Liberal MPs have blamed the government for angering voters, while others are confronting the harder reality that One Nation is now competing directly for voters who might once have defaulted to the Liberal-National Coalition.

Shadow treasurer Tim Wilson said voters were “despairing of the state of this government,” while former prime minister Tony Abbott acknowledged the Coalition faced an existential threat but argued it remained capable of delivering stable government.

Asked about Hanson’s popularity, Abbott said: “I’m not into disparaging someone who has been around and has shown a lot of resilience and consistency over the years, but I do believe that the strong Liberal-National Coalition has proven again and again that we are capable of giving Australia the good government our country so desperately needs.”

The challenge for the Coalition is that simply criticising Labor may not be enough if frustrated voters now see One Nation as the sharper expression of their anger.

Hanson’s Trump-Aligned Populist Language

Hanson’s politics has also drawn attention because of her admiration for Donald Trump and her use of similar populist themes.

At the Conservative Political Action Conference held at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in November last year, Hanson praised Trump’s policies and described him as a “re-energised, strong and patriotic leader who has the best interests of his people at heart”.

“I hate to say it, but the Australian Labor Party will never make Australia great again despite a desperate need to turn our country around,” she told the conference.

“I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, you can’t blame those migrants who want to come to Australia, you can only blame the government.

“And this is an Australian government that does not care about the welfare of its own people.”

That message connects border politics, national identity, cost-of-living pressure and distrust of government. It is a formula that has proven powerful in several democracies, particularly when mainstream parties are perceived as detached from voters’ day-to-day concerns.

The Bigger Meaning of Hanson’s Moment

Pauline Hanson’s rise in the latest polling is not only a story about one politician or one party. It is a story about political realignment.

For decades, Australian politics was shaped by a contest between Labor and the Coalition, with smaller parties influencing the Senate and preference flows. The latest numbers suggest a more fragmented landscape, where a populist minor party can challenge both major blocs in the primary-vote race.

The implications are significant. If One Nation sustains anything close to its current level of support, it could alter campaign strategies, preference negotiations, parliamentary arithmetic and the national policy debate. It could also force both Labor and the Coalition to speak more directly to voters who feel economically insecure, culturally unsettled or politically ignored.

For Hanson, the moment validates a career built on defiance and controversy. For her critics, it raises concerns about the mainstreaming of a politics they see as divisive. For the major parties, it is a warning that traditional loyalties can no longer be assumed.

Conclusion: A Political Warning Sign for Australia

Pauline Hanson’s latest surge shows how quickly political boundaries can shift when public frustration meets a disciplined populist message.

One Nation’s 31 per cent primary support may not hold, and Hanson herself has acknowledged that the next election remains some distance away. But the poll has already changed the national conversation. It has forced Australians to consider whether One Nation is still a protest movement or whether it is becoming a serious contender in a more fractured political era.

Hanson’s message to voters is simple: she believes she has the energy, the ability and the mandate to lead. Whether Australia accepts that argument will depend on whether One Nation can turn anger into organisation, polling into seats and protest into a credible alternative government.

For now, the major parties have been warned. Pauline Hanson is no longer only disrupting the debate from the edges. She is standing much closer to the centre of it.